by Yohane Mbeeya Moono An Alumni of the Zambia Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies Reuters Trained Journalist
The development of the whole of the African continent has been the narrative Africans have been working tirelessly to achieve. The Africa We Want started with Nationalism agenda way back in the 20th century, during the colonial period when most African countries were under colonial powers. When the emancipation of the African continent was fully achieved by Africans, the continent body was given more impetus to ensure that the continent was a developed place for all to marvel. The development drive besides being the responsibility on individual governments of the 55 African States, the African Union being the continental body has a major to set policies that will drive development in member states.
The African Union (AU) is a continental union consisting of 55 member states located on the continent of Africa. The African Union was announced in the Sirte Declaration in Sirte, Libya, on 9 September 1999, calling for the establishment of the African Union. The bloc was founded on 26 May 2001 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, ratified in Lusaka, Zambia in 2002 and launched on 9 July 2003 in Durban, South Africa. The intention of the African Union was to replace the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), established on 25 May 1963 in Addis Ababa by 32 signatory governments; the Organisation of African Unity was disbanded on 9 July 2002. The most important decisions of the African Union are made by the Assembly of the African Union, a semi-annual meeting of the heads of state and government of its member states. The African Union’s Secretariat and the African Union Commission are both based in Addis Ababa The objectives of the African Union are the following;
1. To achieve greater unity, cohesion and solidarity between the African countries and African nations.
2. To defend the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of its Member States.
3. To accelerate the political and social-economic integration of the continent.
4. To promote and defend African common positions on issues of interest to the continent and its peoples.
5.To encourage international cooperation, taking due account of the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
6.To promote peace, security, and stability on the continent.
7.To promote democratic principles and institutions, popular participation and good governance.
8.To promote and protect human and peoples’ rights in accordance with the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights and other relevant human rights instruments.
9.To establish the necessary conditions which enable the continent to play its rightful role in the global economy and in international negotiations.
10.To promote sustainable development at the economic, social and cultural levels as well as the integration of African economies.
11.To promote co-operation in all fields of human activity to raise the living standards of African peoples.
12.To coordinate and harmonise the policies between the existing and future Regional Economic Communities for the gradual attainment of the objectives of the Union.
13.To advance the development of the continent by promoting research in all fields, in particular in science and technology.
14.To work with relevant international partners in the eradication of preventable diseases and the promotion of good health on the continent.
The African Union in one of its very first activities came up witha 63 year plan the Agenda 2063. The Agenda 2063 is an African blueprint and master plan for transforming Africa into the global powerhouse of the future. It must be noted that for some time, the continent has always drawn up wonderful and exciting plans of the transformation agenda of the continent, however, much of it has always been more theoretical than practical. This Agenda 2063 is the continent’s strategic framework that aims to deliver on its goal for inclusive and sustainable development and is a concrete manifestation of the Pan-African drive for unity, self-determination, freedom, progress and collective prosperity pursued under Pan-Africanism and African Renaissance.
The Agenda 2063, purely the brainchild of the African continental bloc with the full understanding of the dynamics of the African environment and the development trends of the African continent. The African Union wrote that the Agenda 2063 seeks at achieving the following :
1. Galvanize and unite in action all Africans and the Diaspora around the common vision of a peaceful, integrated and prosperous Africa.
2. Harness the continental endowments embodied in its people, history, cultures and natural resources, geo-political position to effect equitable and people-centered growth and development.
3. Build on and accelerate implementation of continental frameworks, and other similar initiatives.
4. Provide internal coherence and coordination to continental, regional and national frameworks and plans adopted by the African Union, Regional Economic Communities (RECs) and Members states plans and strategies.
5. Offer policy space for individual, sectorial and collective actions to realize the continental vision
In operational terms, the Agenda 2063 is a rolling plan of long, medium and short-term plans i.e. its overall span is fifty years with five ten-year plans that could be also broken down into shorter periods of five-year terms on the discretion of each member state. It will be fundamentally executed at three layers from national to continental level. In that connection:
1. The national level will be responsible for the implementation of key activities under Agenda 2063;
2. The regional level- the Regional Economic Communities will serve as the fulcrum for the implementation at the member states level. They will adapt the Agenda 2063 results framework to regional peculiarities and facilitate or coordinate the implementation by member states and develop and implement monitoring and evaluation framework at the regional level.
3. The continental level (African Union Organs, especially the African Union Commission) will be responsible for setting the broad results framework and broad monitoring and evaluation based on inputs from the Regional Economic Communities.
The Agenda 2063 which looks at the Africa We Want gave birth to the biggest trade agreement after the World Trade Organization agreement which is the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)Agreement
The African Continental Free Trade Area is premised on the premise of providing free movement of African Nationals on the African continent in order to promote African led businesses and trade. African countries need to put visa waivers for Africans on the continent. This is to encourage many African business people to engage in cross border trade between and among African countries.
The waiver system being advocated can be implemented at three key levels that is the National, Regional and Continental. The East African Community has somewhat led the way by announcing intentions to complete waiver visa requirements for Nationals of member states when traveling within the perimeters of the Community
However, these plans are being hindered by the Covid-19 pandemic as Countries are demanding Covid-19 Vaccination certificates at Points of Entry and Exit in many African States. A thing that is discouraging many from engaging in Cross Border Trade between and among African countries
Africa needs to actualize the free movement of African Nationals to enhance trade and Cross Border business.
Zambia is pushing hard to complete the restructuring of nearly $15 billion of external debt in the first quarter of 2023 and is “in active engagement” with its largest bilateral creditor China, Zambia’s finance minister said in an interview at the Reuters NEXT conference.
Zambia defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020 and the current government, which took power last year, has been on a quest to restructure its loans and rebuild an economy ravaged by mismanagement under previous administrations and COVID-19. In August, Zambia won International Monetary Fund (IMF) approval for $1.3 billion, three-year loan programme to help it restructure debts which the government said stood at $14.87 billion at the end of June 2022.
Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane told Reuters China had sought clarification from the Zambian government and the IMF on their debt agreement, he said.
“The Chinese… are asking (for) a number of clarifications, which us and the IMF are providing them,” Musokotwane said. China wants more clarity on the IMF assumptions on which the loan programme is based, he said, since these are meant to form the basis of the restructuring negotiations between Zambia and all its creditors.
An IMF spokesperson said China and other official creditors have had a number of technical questions since its staff report and Debt Sustainability Analysis for Zambia’s programme request were published. This technical due diligence is currently ongoing. Fund staff is trying to facilitate that process so that technical issues can be resolved and negotiations can continue to progress,” the spokesperson told Reuters.
TEST CASE Zambia’s much-delayed debt restructuring is seen by analysts as a test case for what are expected to be a spate of defaults in poorer countries that have borrowed heavily not only in the capital markets but also from countries including China.
IMF strategy chief Ceyla Pazarbasioglu said Zambia’s debt restructuring was the real test case for the Common Framework, set up in late 2020 by the Group of 20 major economies.
At the end of 2021, Chinese creditors accounted for almost $6 billion of Zambia’s external debt, which was then $17.27 billion.
Zambia’s Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane attends the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington
Zambia’s government said earlier this month that the Export-Import Bank of China (EximBank) was representing China on the bilateral ‘official creditors committee’.
Asked whether EximBank was also representing Chinese commercial creditors, Musokotwane said EximBank is “the lead negotiator for the Chinese interests”. Zambia’s Chinese creditors include commercial banks such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (601398.SS), Jiangxi Bank (1916.HK) and China Minsheng Bank (600016.SS).
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Musokotwane added private creditors were cooperating well in debt relief discussions and there had been a bondholder meeting this week.
Zambia’s government said in October it needs a present value debt reduction by 2027 of $6.3 billion, or 49% of the debt being restructured, to meet IMF targets, a level some international bondholders have previously said would be unacceptable.
COPPER MINING Musokotwane also said he hoped to make an announcement by the first quarter of next year about potential new investors in Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) and Mopani Copper Mines (MCM).
“We are hoping that by first quarter of next year we should be there with some of them. And also some of the new investments that are coming from the U.S. and other places,” he said.
Zambia’s previous government put KCM into liquidation in 2019, triggering a legal dispute with its parent company, Vedanta Resources, that is now being settled out of court. Zambia’s state-owned mining company ZCCM Investments Holdings (ZCCM.LZ) took over MCM in 2021 from commodities giant Glencore (GLEN.L), which mothballed its operations in 2020 due to weak copper prices.
The government is aiming to treble copper production to 3 million tonnes per year within the next decade in Africa’s second largest producer of the mineral.
Credit Story: Reuters
Situmbeko Musokotwane, Zambia’s finance minister, following an interview at his office in Lusaka, Zambia, on Thursday, May 5, 2022. China should head the creditors committee being formed to renegotiate Zambias $17.3 billion of foreign debt because that will help accelerate the resolution process, Musokotwane said. Photographer: Zinyange Auntony/Bloomberg via Getty Images
By Yohane Mbeeya Moono An Alumni of the Zambia Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies
The Regional Economic Communities (RECs) are regional groupings of African states. The Regional Economic Communities have developed individually and have differing roles and structures. Generally, the purpose of the Regional Economic Communities is to facilitate regional economic integration between members of the individual regions and through the wider African Economic Community (AEC), which was established under the Abuja Treaty (1991). The 1980 Lagos Plan of Action for the Development of Africa and the Abuja Treaty proposed the creation of RECs as the basis for wider African integration, with a view to regional and eventual continental integration. The Regional Economic Communities are increasingly involved in coordinating African Union Member States’ interests in wider areas such as peace and security, development and governance.
The Regional Economic Communities are closely integrated with the African Union’s work and serve as its building blocks. The relationship between the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities is mandated by the Abuja Treaty and the AU Constitutive Act, and guided by the: 2008 Protocol on Relations between the Regional Economic Communities and the African Union; and the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Cooperation in the Area of Peace and Security between the African Union, Regional Economic Communities and the Coordinating Mechanisms of the Regional Standby Brigades of Eastern and Northern Africa.
The African Union has 8 Regional Economic Communities and one Regional Body related to the vision of the African Union. Thes organizations have different member countries and the bases of their Secretariats where activities in line with the African Union vision are carried out. These organizations are as follows
1. Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) with the Headquarters in Rabat, Morocco 🇲🇦. The members are: Algeria 🇩🇿, Libya 🇱🇾, Mauritania 🇲🇷, Morocco 🇲🇦 and Tunisia 🇹🇳
2. Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa ( COMESA) with the Headquarters in Lusaka, Zambia 🇿🇲. The members are: Burundi 🇧🇮, Comoros 🇰🇲, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti 🇩🇯, Egypt 🇪🇬, Eritrea 🇪🇷, Ethiopia 🇪🇹, Eswatini, Kenya 🇰🇪, Libya 🇱🇾, Madagascar 🇲🇬, Malawi 🇲🇼, Mauritius 🇲🇺, Rwanda 🇷🇼, Seychelles 🇸🇨, South Sudan , Sudan 🇸🇩, Uganda 🇺🇬, Zambia 🇿🇲 and Zimbabwe 🇿🇼.
3. Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) with the Headquarters in Tripoli, Libya 🇱🇾. The members are: Benin 🇧🇯, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Central Africa Republic, Comoros 🇰🇲,Cote D’Ivoire, Djibouti 🇩🇯, Egypt 🇪🇬, Eritrea 🇪🇷, Gambia 🇬🇲, Ghana 🇬🇭, Guinea 🇬🇳, Guinea Bissau, Kenya 🇰🇪, Liberia 🇱🇷,Libya 🇱🇾, Mali 🇲🇱, Mauritania 🇲🇷, Morocco 🇲🇦, Niger 🇳🇪, Nigeria 🇳🇬, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal 🇸🇳, Sierra Leone, Somalia 🇸🇴, Sudan 🇸🇩, Togo 🇹🇬, Tunisia 🇹🇳.
4. East African Community (EAC) with the Headquarters in Arusha, Tanzania 🇹🇿. The members are:Burundi 🇧🇮, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya 🇰🇪, Rwanda 🇷🇼, South Sudan, Tanzania 🇹🇿 and Uganda 🇺🇬.
5. Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) with the Headquarters in Libreville, Gabon 🇬🇦. The members are: Angola 🇦🇴, Burundi 🇧🇮, Cameroon 🇨🇲, Central Africa Republic, Chad 🇹🇩, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon 🇬🇦 and Sao Tome and Principe.
6. Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)with the Headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria 🇳🇬. The members are: Benin 🇧🇯, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote D’Ivoire, Gambia 🇬🇲, Ghana 🇬🇭, Guinea 🇬🇳, Guinea Bissau, Liberia 🇱🇷, Mali 🇲🇱, Niger 🇳🇪, Nigeria 🇳🇬, Senegal 🇸🇳, Sierra Leone and Togo 🇹🇬.
7. Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) with the Headquarters in Djibouti in the Republic of Djibouti 🇩🇯. The members are: Djibouti 🇩🇯, Eritrea 🇪🇷, Ethiopia 🇪🇹, Kenya 🇰🇪, Somalia 🇸🇴, South Sudan, Sudan 🇸🇩 and Uganda 🇺🇬.
8. Southern African Development Community (SADC)with the Headquarters in Gaborone, Botswana 🇧🇼. The members are: Angola 🇦🇴, Botswana 🇧🇼, Democratic Republic of Congo,Eswatini, Lesotho 🇱🇸, Madagascar 🇲🇬, Malawi 🇲🇼, Mauritius 🇲🇺, Mozambique 🇲🇿, Namibia 🇳🇦, Seychelles 🇸🇨, South Africa, Tanzania 🇹🇿, Zambia 🇿🇲 and Zimbabwe 🇿🇼.
The other Regional Body with works related to the works of the African Union is the International Confernce on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) with the Headquarters in Bujumbura, Burundi 🇧🇮. The members are: Angola 🇦🇴, Burundi 🇧🇮, Central Africa Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya 🇰🇪, Rwanda 🇷🇼, South Sudan, Sudan 🇸🇩, Uganda 🇺🇬, Tanzania 🇹🇿 and Zambia 🇿🇲.
The African Union together with all the Regional Economic Communities are driven by the vision of An Integrated, Prosperous and Peaceful Africa driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena.
By Yohane Mbeeya Moono An Alumni of the Zambia Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies Reuters Trained Journalist
Africa is a continent that has promised so much yet has delivered very little. Africa is a continent that has long been plagued by underdevelopment, wars,health challenges such as Ebola,and Malaria among others, as well as food I security that has the Western World feeling the African population is a threat to the long-term sustainability of the World.
DEMOGRAPHY
The African population stands at 1.4 billion people as of Saturday 19th November,2022 based on thr latest United Nations estimates. This also represents 16.72% of the total World Population. While the Chinese population stands at 1.45 billion people as of Tuesday 22nd November,2022 based on the latest United Nations estimates. This represents about 18.47% of the World Population. Demographically the African Continent is well placed to forge a meaningful assault on the course of its development.
AFRICA’S DEBT TO CHINA
China’s total loans to Africa during the period 2000 to 2018 have been to a tune of $148 billion, mostly in large scale infrastructure projects. During the past five years from 2016 to 2021, around 66% of the loan amounts have been given to the transportation and energy sectors. 32 African countries are currently owing China some colossal sums of money. The countries leading in terms of loans include Angola($21.5 billion in 2017), Ethiopia ($13.7 billion),Kenya ($9.8 billion),Republic of Congo ($7.42 billion),Zambia ($6.38 billion) and Cameroon ($5.57 billion). Africa has almost reached an impregnable debt position.
For many years African countries had always found financial and economic solace in the former colonial masters and financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The now ‘independent’Africa has always been at the mercy of these powers. The emergence of China as an economic superpower has brought about significant changes in the balance of financial aid for African countries.
China had long positioned herself as Africa’s number one development partner by offering infrastructure development packages in the loans which African countries are finding so appealing. The bid for infrastructure development is constant driving Africa towards Chinese loans.
LOAN CONDITIONALITIES
Many Africans hold the view that the continent’s low growth rate economically and the low levels of infrastructure development are as a result of the loan conditionalities from the Brentwood Institutions and the Former Colonial Masters.
The Brentwood Institutions have always given concessional loans and financing to projects. These concessional loans always have a long-term repayment period which could span over 1to 20 years depending on the economic grading of a country. The concessional loans from the Brentwood Institutions are given at an 1 to 20% also dependent upon the economic grading of the country and the type of concessional loan.
While China provides an excellent opportunity to countries in dire need of massive infrastructure development. The Chinese loans have a higher interest rate compared to the Brentwood Institutions. However, the Chinese are believed to embed secret clauses in the loan agreements which often times borders on the sovereignty of a country. The Chinese often seek collateral from these countries and they demand key national assets as collateral.
CURRENT STATUS QUO
A number of African countries have sought economic bailout packages from the International Monetary Fund. Among them is Zambia, Ghana, Chad and Ethiopia. These are highly indebted to the Chinese both from the Chinese government and private lenders. These countries have sought an economic programme under the International Monetary Fund in order to restructure their debt repayment programme post the Covid-19 pandemic. Zambia became the first country to default on her debt in the pandemic era. The idea is that the countries want economic transformation by having more resources invested in the economy. Currently they spend about 40 % of the revenue collection on Debt Servicing which robs the countries from real economic investment. Then they also spend about 50% of the total revenue collection on emoluments. Clearly nothing is left for real economic investment.
CONCLUSION
Has Africa lost its sovereignty? The Chinese built the New African Union headquarters in Addis Abba Ethiopia and was rumored to have been bugged by the Chinese. However, no evidence was provided to this claim. The Chinese have built many buildings on the continent and handed them over as gifts of the Friendship between China and the African Continent. Among the notable structures on the continent include; the Mulungush International Confernce Centre Kenneth Kaunda Wing in Zambia,the New Zimbabwean Parliament Building in Harare and the Guinea Bissau Parliament building in Bissau among others.
These buildings being built by the Chinese leaves a question of whether Africa has lost its sovereignty. However, another question springs to mind on whether the Chinese are losing their grip on the continent going by the increasing number of African countries going to the International Monetary Fund to be on an economic programme. As well as African countries now more determined to cling to the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement which emphasizes the promotion of intra-Africa trade.
Philosophy is an attempt to understand the world around us and the reasons for it and us and the things that we do. A lot of it can be introspective and deals with questions as to the ideal society and the motivations of people and why they do things. Philosophy is so fascinating. Philosophy exists in everything. Logic is the philosopher’s toolbox. In philosophy basically you’ll try to knock down what you think you know about a particular view of the world and you’ll do this whether you agree with the view or not. Why? Because only when you challenge your understanding of how some people view the world, can you decide for yourself if theirs is a view worth having. “Philosophy” is really a verb denoting the process of finding and uniting “love” and “wisdom” within yourself. It is essentially the Western world’s version of Inner Alchemy. Philosophy needs to be taught early on in people’s lives. Our personal philosophy reflects in our daily behavior, in the choices we consciously make and in the values we uphold. Free your thoughts, As we learn to Argue. Learn to find your true self. And learn to find reality within you.
As its time for Philosophy. Metaphysics and logic are essential to understand and figure out the mysteries of astronomy, physics and all other sciences. Questions like “What is the world like” can’t have just one answer because they’re so open ended. One question you need to answer before that is “what is the world” so that you can answer what it’s like. Philosophy makes you ask many questions as it branches into sections which classifies your answers that are defined by logic. Philosophy is what you start looking into when the world has gone beyond insane. Then you discover why. The word Philosophy from Greece: Philos vs. Mythos is as Science vs. Storytelling. Philosophy: literally the love for wisdom, meaning the academic study of anything. At first any study is Philosophy, then studies that had strong empirical elements became Science – a search for answer, while Philosophy came to be understood as a way of thinking about questions. Three Major Branch of Philosophy:
Metaphysics – studies of nature of reality.
Epistemology – studies of nature of knowledge.
Value Theory – nature of Ethics & Aesthetics.
The Foundation of Philosophy:
Logic – the way of building strong Arguments that don’t fall to Fallacy. Philosophy is probably the single most important thing we’ve ever done as a species. We are all born philosophers. The universe scientifically looks like an infinite constant reflection of itself, emotions seem to be the same. You can’t have happiness without sadness, as above ,so below etc etc. What if you need to know what life is, too understand what death is? Philosophy is the study of the definition of objective reality. It is hard because mankind has never agreed on the definition of the terms for lying. Philosophy is the understanding of life in the social worlds civilization. Philosophy is an enquiry into the whole world. It is metaphysical, empirical, logical, ethical and aesthetical way of thinking. While other sciences deal with knowledge, philosophy attempts to know if genuine knowledge is possible, if so what are the valid sources of knowledge and what are the limitations of humans in knowledge acquisition. The Imperialism of Western thought. Colonialist nature of philosophy is real and still alive. Ancient writers themselves relate how Greek thinkers “traveled to Egypt to learn in its temples”—among them Thales of Miletus and Pythagoras, who studied in the temples of Heliopolis, Memphis, and Thebes. And Plato himself, the great ancestor of Western philosophy spent thirteen years as a student in Heliopolis. Philosophy is the study of general and fundamental problems , concerning matters such as existence, knowledge, values, reason, logic and language. It is the rational investigation of the truths and principles. There are two main reasons people study philosophy. The first is simple curiosity, and the love of wisdom.
Wisdom is the ability to think and act using knowledge, experience, understanding, common sense, and insight. Meaning , Philosophy comes from our consciousness , When the people started become curious about everything in this world . We started to questioning, like What, Who , and How. That is why religion , science , and beliefs exist because of our thoughts , or consciousness. If you think deeply , everything in this world like, innovation ,technology , and inventions starts with a questions , questions that originated from our thoughts , questions that may answer a problem . Without our consciousness no one will exist ,our society will not gonna move and grow .
Philosophy addresses problems and questions , that arise in all areas of human thought and experience , and in all disciplines. What does it mean? Meaning if someone invent and create, or initiate something, a new questions will arise . Philosophy is either so complex that it is impossible to understand, or so simple that it is impossible to comprehend, or something in between that doesn’t really care about possibilities or impossibilities. Philosophy is whole based on debates from open mind and open end. The origins of philosophy doesn’t come from Greece. That’s just what they teach you in academia. Ancient Irish druids were philosophers, and they pre-date Greek philosophers. Philosophically, there has always been a fine line between populism & nationalism. Whether the former or latter, eventually leads to a better society, or the perception of such by its adherents, is a matter of perception. Possessing a physical time and space; social, economic, and spiritual matters are typically viewed in such a context. Studying philosophy makes people less likely to be manipulated, and that is precisely why it is not included in public school education. If philosophy is about asking the questions why are we taught about all the ways in which people asked the same questions? Why are we called upon to shape our questions with theirs? Why are we shackled to citing principles and doctrines when the essential part of philosophy is to ask the question? Why are we tied to figments of the past that never had a future? Why is philosophy so stuck up, it smiles at the face of anyone that dare ask what is this good for? Why is philosophy? What is in us humans, that makes us so inherently curious about every little thing around us? Is philosophy one of if not the reason we as humans are so advanced compared to the rest of the earth? Philosophy is studying outside of the box. Trying to view things in an otherworldly perspective. Yet logic is the tool we use to view things inside the box. So how can we use logic to find answers that aren’t really part of logic.
And for those of you who are pretty close to a genius-like level, how can this statement above be true when it is formed off on logic.
And how can this statement above be true when it is formed off on common sense (logic). The purpose of life of those who ponder the meaning of life is to find the meaning of life. The goal of philosophy is not to come up with the answers that make the most sense to you, it is to find the Truth. If something is true, it is true. For example, if i believe the sun revolves around the Earth rather than vice versa because it makes the most sense to me that doesn’t make it true, even if you believe it to be so. Philosophy is the study of insanity. Philosophy, so much talking without any real information, it should be grouped together with religion and politics. Philosophy is a bunch of empty ideas. Philosophy isn’t a career or label or something you wear above a name tag, it’s an obsession, and if you are infected by this obsession to know and question and fight to understand the truth, the order of things, the great mystery that will never be completely solved, well, you may very well be a philosopher in every way except being called one. Humans seek meaning above all else; philosophers are the champions and victims of our need and curse for meaning. This is also why in our modern age the term “philosopher” has been besmirched; we are largely an age with no real meaning in our lives/world besides money, war, consumption, and trivial entertainment. Philosophy is for the examination of life, for knowing whether mankind is heading for self-destruction or greater happiness. The latter is not automatically guaranteed since man is responsible for his choices. His choices determine his fate. The philosopher is like the adult in the room.
Philosophy is the ability to question your own thinking, and also expand on the philosophers thoughts that came before you. There’s a timeless principle. The world looks to one as exactly relative to what one positions themselves as. In other words, what one thinks they’re defines what they see as other things could be. ‘who/what am I?’ is the first question, and then begins the true quest for timeless wisdom! First lesson of philosophy is that what ordinarily passes for wisdom in this world is worth little or nothing. The second lesson of philosophy is that attaining wisdom is no more possible for a man than is his attaining perfection. The third lesson of philosophy is that, while both perfection and wisdom are impossible goals, by striving to attain these lofty goals nonetheless, we become better people in the process – in that we broaden our horizons, come to understand different viewpoints and various ways of thinking about life, existence and the world, and, most importantly, come to know ourselves.
Philosophy is vital for critical thinking. The problem with philosophy is, you will run into never ending meta-chains, contradictions, and disagreements. Everything is part of some Philosophy! Philosophy is the answer to wandering human minds. Study & Keep your mind open-minded will get you stronger. Conscious humans tend towards philosophy. There’s no ultimate answer in philosophy just like there’s no god equation in physics (yet). Philosophers are conscious people who gave a lot heed to anything. While most of us spend our lives either worrying about the useless or looking for a deeper meaning or seeking sensual pleasure. Knowledge is power but wisdom is liberty. We hate questions because makes us doubt and face uncertainty. Human dislike uncertainty. They rather be blind than face the harsh reality where the comfort will be threaten and their ideals became weak. Philosophy is low key comedy. Philosophy should be taught in grade school. School doesn’t even teach how to critically think anymore. Philosophy is inspiring. Knowledge is knowing how to be a house, wisdom is knowing not to build it on sand. philosophy is a supervisor of life, it direct our energy in order to put it in a meaningful way to live, philosophy is questioning everything and even questioning the question, philosophy is anxiety that try to lead to answers. The most essential or important fields in philosophy is metaphysics, epistemology and the philosophy of religion. Question like: “what is the meaning of life” or “is there objective morality which is known as moral realism is very much based on all areas, but primarily on the philosophy of religion. Here is the issue: without life being purposely created or caused, there is no such thing as a purpose or meaning in life.
No matter what subjective opinions or ways of looking life you have, the problem lies on the idea, of what can be objectively said to be true or false. We live in a dark time for philosophy; society is routinely bombarded with useless information that promotes hate, sexism, prejudice and ignorance. These issues have always existed but the teachings of philosophy have been obscured and labeled as either dogmatic or even in some circles as evil. The freedom to think for one’s self and make one’s own autonomous decisions is a both a blessing and a curse because most people are not enlightened and poorly educated. This is why it is critical to study, learn and live philosophy. It gives an individual balance and structure. Philosophy should be in taught in public schools to give children balance and perspective. Philosophy is a building block for life, from there you can travel in any direction with the confidence of knowing that you possess the ability to make logical decisions that are tempered with reason. It is more than our ethical duty, it’s a privilege. Philosophy has now become self-help industry unfortunately. Philosophy is the vault where you put all questions that can’t be answered by science or other disciplines. The problem is that, that vault is getting empty. Sciences are solving the questions for long time attributed to philosophy, for example, how to be happy, what is love, how to control our moods, what is the mind, etc. And the possible remaining questions would be either impossible to answer or senseless or doesn’t have an objective answer. Some of those questions are important, but philosophy is not an authority on them, philosophy is not a science it’s just mere speculation, opinion. If the question is for example, what is the purpose of life, and your opinion is: to be happy, sciences (psychology mainly) would tell you what is happiness and how to get it. We can answer those kind of questions conventionally or democratically too, just ask the community how they want to live. But philosophy doesn’t yield any knowledge. Philosophy seems to be an infinite pursuit of objective knowledge which evidently leads to skepticism and reopens if the skeptic rather than dogmatist prefers consistency over pragmatism. Philosophers are people who waste a lot of time explaining things that are clear to everyone else.
Philosophy is the weapon of the incompetent. Love and wisdom concept is the production of philosophy? This are learned concept for your question of what philosophy is for. Is fallacy in subject essence? Those philosopher comes after them like Pythagorean use those symbols ,alphabets ,word to describe phenomenon only then Romans like Plato use it again for shaping object and human ,then follows all philosopher till now use it blindly pretending they known to say what for, disorder ,disconencted undifferentiated in every filed of language and specific observer phenomenon . Many university teaching mode of philosophy in class room is fraud how one object called teacher explain million years of conciseness with experiencing without past formation they teach to more than 25 student in a class this is not study, this is production of state of mind by using proposition or phrase because minor topics in any filed philosophy is not about cognition or measurement or logic and reason it is about flows with source and evaluation of human oldest philosopher their is no teacher and student their is discussion between 2 or more observers in what is observed and why? Philosophy is divided into three fields of areas of inquiry or branches while logic serves as a philosophical tool for reasoning and making good arguments when tackling, dealing with ideas, and doing philosophy. The branches are epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), metaphysics (the philosophy of the origin and nature of being and existence and concepts beyond physical), and value theory (the philosophy of values) which are further divided into ethics (moral and social and or political values) and aesthetics (values of beauty, the beautiful, and art). Philosophy of religion is the branch of metaphysics that deals with the nature of God, God’s existence, the problem of evil, God’s attributes, concepts of faith and belief, and philosophical concepts on religion, etc.
Our mind is our blessing and our course at the same time. We are the only beings able to philosophies and the only beings who need that. Mental health must be exercised in order to master it, just like any other type of skill. In order to do this one has to develop a rational mindset and put aside the emotions. This becomes easier as you practice every day on different scenarios. If only people valued philosophy and knowledge, if only schools taught it extensively and mandatorily, then mankind will make significant progress in daily life. Philosophy is the way of return back to yourself.
The ability to observe without evaluating is the highest form of intelligence. And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music.” Sometimes people don’t want to hear the truth because they don’t want their illusions destroyed.” Do not kill the part of you that is cringe, kill the part of you that cringes”. “He who has a why to live can bear almost any how”. In loneliness, the lonely one eats himself; in a crowd, the many eat him. There will always be rocks in the road ahead of us. They will be stumbling blocks or stepping stones; it all depends on how you use them.” The evil of today is often the good of an earlier age.” A mind that pursued to far into itself , and got stuck on the way out.” Talent is hitting a target no one else can hit, genius is hitting a target no one else can see”. I tried so hard and got so far, but in the end it doesn’t even matter “A high degree of intellect tends to make a man unsocial”.“Love seems to be implanted by nature in the parent towards the offspring, and in the offspring toward the parent, and in those of the same race towards one another.”
“Those who live in a cold climate and in [northern] Europe are full of spirit, but wanting in intelligence and skill; and therefore they keep their freedom, but have no political organization, and are incapable of ruling over others. Whereas the natives of Asia are intelligent and inventive, but they are wanting in spirit, and therefore they are always in a state of subjection and slavery. But the Hellenic race, which is situated between them, is likewise intermediate in character, being high-spirited and also intelligent. Hence it continues free, and is the best governed of any nation, and, if it could be formed into one state, would be able to rule the world. Being under virtuous is better than being over virtuous. But being over virtuous is more likely to become mid virtuous then being under virtuous. Philosophers always fall for utopian thinking, thinking they can create satisfied individuals. Yesterday I was clever, so I wanted to change the world. Today I am wise, so I am changing myself. Be kind, for everyone you meet because you never know they are fighting a harder battle. “Optimist: the glass is half full.
Pessimist: the glass is half empty.
Philosopher: what exactly is a glass, and who determines what constitutes that glass as being deemed full. Even so, what is the significance in relativistic terms of which the glass is either full or empty. And more so, can the glass ever be full by the understanding of metaphysical senses to the extent of which, the problems is, popular opinions edge us towards the wrong values, careers and relationships. We become what we contemplate”. It really matters who we admire, because they influence our outlook, ideas and bad conduct. And bad heroes give glamour to flaws of character. The world will not be right until Kings become Philosophers”. “know yourself”.
“If you strengthen your self-knowledge, you don’t get so pulled around by feelings.”True love is admiration’. Kings must become philosophers or the philosophers kings” if only that statement somehow became famous and more important so much about our lives could have been different. Politics was almost always been a game of ignorant, lies and power. If only we could understood the importance of Plato’s statement. Think more is probably the opposite to popular opinion these days. People seem to think that thinking more complicates things. However, the complication doesn’t arise from thinking rather just letting your mind through whatever it receives from the external world and allowing the emotions those thoughts create to take a hold of you, in many ways the exact opposite of thinking consciously. There were fine theatres on both sides.” Every philosophy seems like emphasis on particular part of truth and mostly it is aspect of truth that is peculiar to the philosopher and his circumstances. Hence all philosophies are true, but not whole truth. “Philosophy approaches the truth daily, by new discoveries.” Science is “knowing”, while the art is “doing”. Science is knowledge and art is practice, however, philosophy is the brain function; through which it finds answers to the questions for which science doesn’t have an answer!
The art and science are the products of Philosophy. Philosophy is a way of life. Every human being has a different perspective on what they love. So, let’s say Philosophy is a life itself. Philosophy is a recursive quest for questions, answers and questions within answers. Philosophy means love for knowledge. Philosophy is arm-chair guessing. Science can answer all the questions of philosophy, except that the current picture from science might not be sufficiently accurate (within customary ranges it is sufficiently accurate, unlike in Schopenhauer’s time). The problem is we rarely like what science has discovered, especially when it’s about humans, and their hopes and fears.
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (MH370/MAS370) was an international passenger flight operated by Malaysia Airlines that disappeared on 8 March 2014 while flying from Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia to its planned destination, Beijing Capital International Airport.
The crew of the Boeing 777-200ER registered as 9M-MRO, last communicated with air traffic control (ATC) around 38 minutes after takeoff when the flight was over the South China Sea. The aircraft was lost from ATC radar screens minutes later, but was tracked by military radar for another hour, deviating westwards from its planned flight path, crossing the Malay Peninsula and Andaman Sea. It left radar range 200 nautical miles (370 km; 230 mi) northwest of Penang Island in northwestern Peninsular Malaysia.
With all 227 passengers and 12 crew aboard presumed dead, the disappearance of Flight 370 was the deadliest incident involving a Boeing 777 and the deadliest in Malaysia Airlines’ history until it was surpassed in both regards by Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was shot down while flying over conflict-stricken Eastern Ukraine four months later on 17 July 2014. The combined loss caused significant financial problems for Malaysia Airlines, which was renationalised by the Malaysian government in August 2014.
The search for the missing airplane, which became the most expensive in aviation history, focused initially on the South China Sea and Andaman Sea, before analysis of the aircraft’s automated communications with an Inmarsat satellite indicated a possible crash site somewhere in the southern Indian Ocean. The lack of official information in the days immediately after the disappearance prompted fierce criticism from the Chinese public, particularly from relatives of the passengers, as most people on board Flight 370 were of Chinese origin.
Several pieces of marine debris confirmed to be from the aircraft washed ashore in the western Indian Ocean during 2015 and 2016. After a three-year search across 120,000 km2 (46,000 sq mi) of ocean failed to locate the aircraft, the Joint Agency Coordination Centre heading the operation suspended its activities in January 2017. A second search launched in January 2018 by private contractor Ocean Infinity also ended without success after six months.
Relying mostly on analysis of data from the Inmarsat satellite with which the aircraft last communicated, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) proposed initially that a hypoxia event was the most likely cause given the available evidence, although no consensus has been reached concerning this theory among investigators. At various stages of the investigation, possible hijacking scenarios were considered, including crew involvement, and suspicion of the airplane’s cargo manifest; many disappearance theories regarding the flight have also been reported by the media.
The Malaysian Ministry of Transport’s final report from July 2018 was inconclusive, but highlighted Malaysian ATC’s failures to attempt to communicate with the aircraft shortly after its disappearance. In the absence of a definitive cause of disappearance, air transport industry safety recommendations and regulations citing Flight 370 have been intended mostly to prevent a repetition of the circumstances associated with the loss. These include increased battery life on underwater locator beacons, lengthening of recording times on flight data recorders and cockpit voice recorders, and new standards for aircraft position reporting over the open ocean. On 8 March 2015, exactly one year after the disappearance of Flight 370, the Malaysian Ministry of Transport issued an interim report titled “Factual Information: Safety Information for MH370”, which focused on providing factual information about the missing airplane, rather than the analysis of possible causes of the disappearance.[214] A brief update statement was provided one year later, in March 2016, regarding the status of the investigation.[215]
The final ATSB report was published on 3 October 2017. The final report from the Malaysian Ministry of Transport, dated 2 July 2018, was released to the public in Kuala Lumpur on 30 July 2018. This report did not provide any new information concerning the fate of MH370, but it did indicate errors made by Malaysian air traffic controllers in their limited efforts to communicate with the aircraft.[216][217] Following these accounts of air traffic control failings, the Chairman of the Civil Aviation Authority of Malaysia, Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, resigned on 31 July 2018.
Analysis of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 satellite communications
The communications between Flight 370 and the satellite communication network operated by Inmarsat, which were relayed by the Inmarsat-3 F1 satellite, provide the only significant clues to the location of Flight 370 after disappearing from Malaysian military radar at 02:22 MYT. These communications have also been used to infer possible in-flight events. The investigative team was challenged with reconstructing the flight path of Flight 370 from a limited set of transmissions with no explicit information about the aircraft’s location, heading, or speed.
The mystery of Flight MH370 remains one of the biggest mysteries of the technologically advanced world and it is still perplexing that an object as big as a plane could not have been tracked
By Yohane Mbeeya Moono An Alumni of the Zambia Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies Reuters Trained Journalist
Cristiano Ronaldo is arguably one of the best footballers of all time. His achievements in the game will be hard feat to beat for young and current footballers.
No sooner had wonderkid Alejandro Garnacho announced his arrival in the Premier League than Cristiano Ronaldo dropped a bombshell. The delirium and sheer ecstacy that engulfed the end of the Premier League encounter at Craven Cottage between Fulham and Manchester United quickly decapitated into despair and agony.
The bombshell Cristiano Ronaldo has dropped is good riddance for Manchester United as they can beginning to prepare for life without Cristiano Ronaldo. Time has come for the Manager to empower and trust the young talents of Garnacho, Anthony Santos, Jadon Sancho, Anthony Elanga, Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford. Besides the team already seems a better proposition without Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo has just signed off the chances of Portugal performing better at the World Cup. Much as he is the leader of the pack, he will be leading a pack which is disjointed and disunited because of his lack of respect for the club manager. The bombshell will help the Manchester United manager to focus on a group and begin to prepare them to have they identity of the manager in charge of the team.
Any team wishing to sign Cristiano Ronaldo after his interview with Piers Morgan will be purely for unknown sporting reasons. Cristiano Ronaldo through this interview has proved that he is a virus to any team and this virus is ready to destroy the DNA of them. Signing Cristiano Ronaldo at this stage would be purely for economic reasons because of the huge following that he commands world over. For example, When he moved to Juventus, Supersport a pay channel never used to televise the Serie A but that all changed when he moved to Italy. That is an example of the economic benefits that the brand Cristiano Ronaldo brings. However, he needs to understand that Age is not on his side and that coaches are not focused on investing in older players like him but more in young players who would generate a greater value for the club in the future.
We are all agree that the running of Manchester United since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson and David Gill has not been anything to write home about. But for a player under contract to publicly question the running of the club is the surelest way of one tearing their own contract. This brings into perspective the debate between him and Lionel Messi. When Messi was wounded out of Barcelona he never gave an interview demeaning the club but for Cristiano Ronaldo his misdemeanors should never be talked about, only the misdemeanors of the club. Perhaps it could be the reason Messi is more preferred over him because maybe of his attitude.
One can never take away his talent and exploits on the pitch but his actions lately have caused all the wrong headlines at the club. Perhaps, he should have been wiser to know that this would disrupt the morale in team and cause a revolt in the dressing room if the Manager keeps giving him more opportunities despite his public shortcomings.
The Interview with Piers Morgan seems a well calculated move for him to force his way out of Old Trafford. Buying Ronaldo by any team will be like Liverpool under Brendan Rodgers selling an inform Suarez to Barcelona and replace him with ill disciplined Mario Baloteli under the guise of giving him a Discipline oriented contract. Clearly Cristiano Ronaldo has shown how ill disciplined he is. Cristiano Ronaldo should realize that no player or individual will be bigger than an institution or club however poorly run it is.
Did you know that the Copperbelt Province is the only province in the country without a National Park in its Provincial boundaries.
About 30% of Zambia’s 752 614 square kilometers is reserved for wildlife. There are 20 national parks and 34 game management areas in the country. South Luangwa, Kafue and Lower Zambezi rank among the finest game parks in the world.
Kafue National Park which overlaps into three provinces that is Southern, Western and Central provinces is the Largest National Park in the country and is said to be equivalent to the size of Wales of the Great Britain.
Luambe, and Lukusuzi Liuwa Plain, West Lunga, Sioma Ngwezi, and Nyika Plateau have substantial wildlife but are still undeveloped. Mosi-oa-Tunya, near Victoria Falls, is regarded as a Zoological park as it has a well managed population of antelope, elephants, giraffe and rhino, but does not have any predators.
Isangano, Lavushi Manda, Lusenga Plain, and Mweru Wantipa have never had management or facilities and have little wildlife but are still worth a visit by intrepid explorers and birdlovers. The newest park to be proclaimed is Lusaka National Park, just outside the capital, which opened to the public in June 2015.
Kasanka in Serenje and Chitambo districts and Lochinvar in Monze district are regarded as bird sanctuaries for the high bird population found in the two national parks. They are also characterized by Annual Bird Migration.
National parks and game management areas are part of the tourism gem and combo the country has to offer to the world
Alarm bells about the threat of terrorism in South Africa have recently been sounding more stridently and more often. Are these false alarms or is the danger growing?
This question is complicated by the fact that the warnings are largely from foreigners, especially the United States (US). To many, this indicates alarmism or even outside interference. To others, panic buttons are being pressed because South Africa’s law enforcement, intelligence and prosecution services aren’t doing their jobs well enough.
This week, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on South African-based brothers Nufael Akbar and Yunus Mohamad Akbar, as well as Mohamad Akbar and Umar Akbar. It said they were ‘members of an [Islamic State] cell operating in South Africa who have provided technical, financial, or material support’ to Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (IS).
All four, the US Treasury added, were associated with Farhad Hoomer, whom it described as the leader of the Durban-based cell. The US had sanctioned Hoomer and three others in March for similar offences. This week’s sanctions included four South Africa-based companies connected to Nufael and Yunus Akbar and four owned or controlled by Hoomer.
Is Washington feeling obliged to act because Pretoria isn’t doing so effectively?
The US Treasury’s announcement came shortly after the US embassy in Pretoria – quickly followed by several other Western countries’ embassies – issued a security alert about a possible terrorist attack in the upmarket Sandton commercial district. The attack didn’t happen, though this might have been due to heightened security because of the alert.
Meanwhile the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) – a global intergovernmental watchdog of money laundering and terrorist financing – seems likely to add South Africa to its grey list soon. This is partly because ‘South Africa has failed to demonstrate that it is effectively identifying, investigating or prosecuting terrorist financiers or addressing terrorism finance through alternate measures.’
And in July this year, the UN Security Council warned in a report that South Africa was increasingly being used as a conduit for terrorist funding, mainly to Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
The two sets of US sanctions against Hoomer and his associates, in particular, raise the question of whether Washington feels obliged to act because Pretoria isn’t doing so effectively.
South African authorities arrested Hoomer, Mohamad Akbar and 10 others in 2018 for planting incendiary devices at a Shia mosque in Verulam and shops and a horse race in Durban. The cell members were also charged with murdering a worshipper, stabbing the imam, and kidnapping a Tanzanian. The case was thrown out of court because of prosecution deficiencies, official sources told ISS Today. It seems unlikely they will be reinstated.
Security services failings are aggravated by an ideological disposition to underestimate the terror threat
In June 2021, Hoomer was again arrested with four others at a warehouse in Mayville, Durban, in possession of ammunition and firearms. That case was also dropped, again, it seems, through law enforcement incompetence – this time the failure to secure search warrants.
US actions against IS in South Africa are creating tensions with the authorities. In October President Cyril Ramaphosa criticised the US for issuing the Sandton terror alert without consulting his government – although US sources hinted that Pretoria had been informed. This week, South African government sources told ISS Today that the US had warned Pretoria that it would be announcing sanctions.
In March this year, some South African security officials were apparently angered by the US sanctions against Hoomer and the others. Revealingly though, the finance and justice ministries acknowledged the sanctions and committed to working with other states to stop money laundering and terrorism financing. This sentiment was repeated on 9 November by Mondli Gungubele, Minister in the Presidency Responsible for State Security, in response to the recent sanctions.
Some officials acknowledged privately to ISS Today that they believe Hoomer is a local IS kingpin and remains free only because of missteps by South African law enforcement. They were also concerned about the slow progress of the case against Sayefundeen Aslam Del Vecchio, his wife Bibi Fatima Patel and their accomplice Mussa Ahman Jackson. They are standing trial for the murder of elderly botanists Rod and Rachel Saunders in KwaZulu-Natal in 2018.
Evidence was found in the accused’s home, but they weren’t charged with terrorism. Law enforcement sources told ISS Today that the case had recently been jeopardised by the presiding judge recusing herself after signing an Asset Forfeiture Unit order brought against the accused.
South Africa’s failure to deal effectively with IS and terrorist financing has a host of causes. These include problems in the intelligence, detection and prosecution services still recovering from the ravages of state capture during Jacob Zuma’s presidency. The South African government’s own Mufamadi and Africa reports have acknowledged these failings.
South Africa should take control, but can only do that by restoring confidence in its counter-terrorism abilities
These issues are aggravated by political factors such as an ideological disposition to underestimate the terror threat and see it as an obsession of the West. The FATF report alluded to this when it noted that South Africa’s reluctance ‘to classify politically motivated violent acts as terrorism’ was constraining its ability to tackle terrorist financing.
Apart from increasing the risk of violence, these failures could damage South Africa economically. The threatened FATF grey listing would probably lead to a ratings downgrade, followed by decreased investment and reduced trade.
The implications are also felt beyond South Africa’s borders. The March US Treasury sanctions suggested Hoomer’s IS cell was mainly raising funds for IS operatives elsewhere, like Mozambique and the DRC.
The apparent lack of coordination between the US and South Africa presents other risks, like provoking people while they remain free to retaliate. On 9 November News24 quoted Hoomer as saying about the latest round of US sanctions: ‘When you put a person in a corner, and you keep tramping on their toes, you are going to get a reaction that might not be too good. And then later on, they will say this person is a terrorist because look how they are reacting.’
And the Sunday Times quoted anonymous police officials claiming that the US Sandton terror alert had blown the cover off an advanced investigation into the preparations for the same attack.
The impression created by recent events is that Washington rather than Pretoria is steering counter-terrorism operations in South Africa. That obviously can’t be good.
South Africa needs to take control of its counter-terrorism but can only do that by restoring international and domestic confidence in its ability to do so. Determined and concerted action is needed by all government agencies involved – including better cooperation with other governments.
A new long-term scenario analysis confirms that China will overtake the United States (US) as the most powerful country in the world by mid-century. The West, comprising the US and the European Union (EU), cannot constrain China’s momentum towards great power status.
The study by the African Futures and Innovation team at the Institute for Security Studies assessed the likely future distribution of power worldwide using the Frederick S Pardee Centre’s International Futures forecasting platform. It tested the effect of alternative global futures on Africa, the continent with the greatest development challenges. Four scenarios were modelled – a Sustainable World, a Divided World (the current trajectory), a World at War and a Growth World.
The analysis showed that despite China’s rise, the West would continue to dominate globally if relations between the US and the EU hold. The West is projected to maintain a technological and wealth advantage even over a possible Chinese-Russian axis.
Nothing is pre-ordained, and numerous unlikely but high-impact changes could disrupt this trend. The first is a great power implosion in the US, China or the EU. In the EU’s case, the reverse could also occur, with an expansion to include Turkey and a democratic Russia.
Deeper regional integration in Asia could make it the largest and most influential global political and economic bloc, but this would require an end to the divisions between India, China, and Japan, among others.
Ironically, the greatest threat to China’s ongoing rise is its potential democratisation. In all other countries except the oil-rich Middle East, rising incomes unlocked a push for individual achievement and, eventually, democratisation. Such change would probably disrupt China’s current growth trajectory. That would negatively affect Africa, given China’s importance as a trading partner, investor, and infrastructure builder.
Even less likely is the scenario in which ongoing divisions in the US, if left unchecked, result in domestic violence and armed conflict. So developments in the US, EU or China could decisively tilt the global future.
But the most likely disrupter is the accelerated impact of climate change. It could force a reassessment of the current global trajectory – towards a Divided World – and provide the impetus for a collective response.
2043
The orientation of India will also affect the future global balance of power and the nature of that order. Relations between the US and EU are significant for the continued dominance of the West. A resumption of Donald Trump’s disastrous foreign policies – should he be re-elected as US president in 2024 – could see the EU and US going their separate ways.
And although the war in Ukraine has strengthened relations in the EU and between the US and EU, rising energy prices and a likely recession will strain EU unity. Meanwhile, the Ukraine conflict and the fear of China’s growing influence are causing significant collateral damage. The West must differentiate between China and Russia and resist simplistic narratives that pit a benevolent West against bad China associated with evil Russia in Africa.
For Africa to develop and reduce poverty, it needs China, the EU and the US. It cannot choose one above the other. Compared to the Sustainable World, the current Divided World trajectory means Africa will release 4% more carbon, gross domestic product per capita will be 6% lower, and extreme poverty 48% higher by 2043 (Chart 1).
Only under the Sustainable World scenario will Africa have the space to develop and start closing the growing gap with other regions on various indices such as average income. And that in turn depends on a rapprochement between China and the West. But the Chinese Communist Party won’t abandon its collectivist views on politics and development just as democratic countries won’t abandon a belief in individual freedoms and rights.
A determined effort is needed to rebuild relations between the West and China defined by mutual respect and acknowledgement of the differences in approaches to development and governance.
African leaders have just as much work to do. Not all are committed to their country’s development. Some rule in the interests of a clique, family, or ethnic group; in others, state capacity is so weak it renders governing impotent.
Some countries in the Sahel, military-run governments in West Africa, countries such as Sudan, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic, and family businesses like Eswatini and Equatorial Guinea cannot currently be part of an African journey of renewal. African leaders must be bold enough to embark on a two-speed approach where some states commit earlier to higher governance standards and demonstrate the associated advantages. Others can join later.
The idea of ‘leaving no country behind’ is appealing but impractical for advancing Africa’s development
The obstacles to such an approach are immense, given the priority that the African Union (AU) places on continental unity and the emotional appeal of Pan-Africanism. Previous efforts include the Conference on Security, Stability, Development and Cooperation in Africa, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development, and the African Peer Review Mechanism.
All of these started as initiatives with minimum entry requirements. The idea of ‘leaving no country behind’ is appealing but cannot serve as a practical basis for advancing Africa’s development.
Continuing with current practices of lowest-common-denominator politics – seeking to take all Africa’s diverse countries on the development journey at the same speed – won’t disrupt the continent’s low growth trajectory. It effectively penalises more stable countries with predictable policies and better governance.
The priority for Africa is to maximise its sustainable development prospects through greater policy convergence among these first-tier countries. Stronger, more effective institutions and the evolution of a next-generation rules-based global system are also important. An authoritative approach that sees key African countries setting standards for foreign investment, insisting on full transparency and resisting political conditionality, is crucial.
Finally, if the West is to retain influence and assist Africa, it must find ways to de-risk investment in the continent. For their part, Africans need to work much harder to reduce policy volatility and improve domestic stability. Europe, the US and Africa need ongoing communication and greater visibility of Africa’s development prospects.
But most important – if we are to avoid a new era of extreme bipolarity – the West and China need to find a way to reset relations.
Authored by
Jakkie Cilliers Head, African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria
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